How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
Odds right now: 255-259 29%, 250-254 18%, 245-249 16%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 12:47 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 255-259 as the most likely outcome at 29%, ahead of 250-254 (18%) and 245-249 (16%). 9 outcomes are trading in all. 255-259 has fallen 21 points since November 5, from 50% to 29%. 250-254 has fallen 32 points since November 5, from 50% to 18%. In the last 24 hours 255-259 gained 4 points.
$38K has been traded on this event, $5.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $27K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “255-259”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 73% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 4, 2027. How it resolves: The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “255-259”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House. A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
On Polymarket, 255-259 is trading at 29%. Other outcomes: 255-259 29%, 250-254 18%, 245-249 16%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 255-259 as the most likely outcome at 29%, ahead of 250-254 (18%) and 245-249 (16%). 9 outcomes are trading in all. 255-259 has fallen 21 points since November 5, from 50% to 29%. 250-254 has fallen 32 points since November 5, from 50% to 18%. In the last 24 hours 255-259 gained 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 4, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.