How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
Odds right now: 3 54%, 2 37%, 1 5%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:20 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 3 as the most likely outcome at 54%, ahead of 2 (37%) and 1 (5%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 3 has risen 33 points since October 11, from 21% to 54%, after peaking at 70% on November 9. 2 has fallen 11 points since October 11, from 48% to 37%, after peaking at 73% on October 17. In the last 24 hours 3 lost 15 points.
$33K has been traded on this event, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $19K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “3”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 63% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “3”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
On Polymarket, 3 is trading at 54%. Other outcomes: 3 54%, 2 37%, 1 5%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 3 as the most likely outcome at 54%, ahead of 2 (37%) and 1 (5%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 3 has risen 33 points since October 11, from 21% to 54%, after peaking at 70% on November 9. 2 has fallen 11 points since October 11, from 48% to 37%, after peaking at 73% on October 17. In the last 24 hours 3 lost 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.