How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?
Odds right now: 5-9 25%, 10-14 20%, 15-19 16%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 3:32 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 5-9 as the most likely outcome at 25%, ahead of 10-14 (20%) and 15-19 (16%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 5-9 has fallen 25 points since November 4, from 50% to 25%. 10-14 has fallen 30 points since November 4, from 50% to 20%. In the last 24 hours 5-9 lost 4 points.
$16K has been traded on this event, $4.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $49K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “20-24”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the exact number of bills and joint resolutions Donald Trump vetoes between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “20-24”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 13 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the exact number of bills and joint resolutions Donald Trump vetoes between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after December 31, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. Each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?
On Polymarket, 5-9 is trading at 25%. Other outcomes: 5-9 25%, 10-14 20%, 15-19 16%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 5-9 as the most likely outcome at 25%, ahead of 10-14 (20%) and 15-19 (16%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 5-9 has fallen 25 points since November 4, from 50% to 25%. 10-14 has fallen 30 points since November 4, from 50% to 20%. In the last 24 hours 5-9 lost 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.