World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries
Odds right now: Israel 42%, Netherlands 18%, Sweden 28%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 7:48 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket prices 10 separate markets for “World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries”: “Israel” at 42%, “Netherlands” at 18%, “Sweden” at 28% and “Iceland” at 96%. Israel has fallen 9 points since November 14, from 51% to 42%. Netherlands has fallen 32 points since November 14, from 50% to 18%.
$7.9K has been traded on this event, $7.3K of it in the last 24 hours, and $8.5K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Israel”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 58% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country finishes in the top 5 of the World Happiness Report 2027 ranking of countries by life evaluations (in the World Happiness Report 2026, this ranking was published as "Figure 2.1: Country rankings by life evaluations. Gallup World Poll (2023–2025)"). Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Israel”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Resolution source: worldhappiness.report/
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country finishes in the top 5 of the World Happiness Report 2027 ranking of countries by life evaluations (in the World Happiness Report 2026, this ranking was published as "Figure 2.1: Country rankings by life evaluations. Gallup World Poll (2023–2025)"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The World Happiness Report 2027 is expected to be published in March 2027. Countries will be ranked according to their published rank in the World Happiness Report 2027. If two or more countries share the same published rank, they will be ranked by their life evaluation score (the average Cantril ladder score) as published in the report, with higher scores ranking higher. If they remain tied, they will be ranked in alphabetical order of their English names. This market will resolve to "Yes" for each country that occupies one of the top 5 places after applying this ranking. If no World Happiness Report 2027 ranking is published by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Happiness Report (https://worldhappiness.report/); a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More geopolitics markets
Questions
What are the odds of World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries?
On Polymarket, Israel is trading at 42%. Other outcomes: Israel 42%, Netherlands 18%, Sweden 28%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket prices 10 separate markets for “World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries”: “Israel” at 42%, “Netherlands” at 18%, “Sweden” at 28% and “Iceland” at 96%. Israel has fallen 9 points since November 14, from 51% to 42%. Netherlands has fallen 32 points since November 14, from 50% to 18%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.