Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?
Odds right now: Yes 61%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 11:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026” a 61% chance. The price has risen 11 points since November 11, from 51% to 62%, after peaking at 93% on November 13. In the last 24 hours it lost 29 points.
$4.7K has been traded on this event, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $683 sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 51% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of D66, VVD and CDA breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if D66, VVD or CDA ceases to be a coalition partner in the Dutch government (the Jetten cabinet, sworn in on February 23, 2026). Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of D66, VVD and CDA breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if D66, VVD or CDA ceases to be a coalition partner in the Dutch government (the Jetten cabinet, sworn in on February 23, 2026). A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – the cabinet offering its resignation to the King because of a breakdown between the coalition parties, – or the appointment of a new government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Prime Minister remains in office with a new coalition, as a minority government, or as head of a caretaker (demissionary) cabinet, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” A cabinet resignation that does not result from a breakdown between the coalition parties (e.g., following a successful motion of no confidence while D66, VVD and CDA all remain committed to the coalition) will not count. The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, threats to leave, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?
On Polymarket, Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026? is trading at 61%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026” a 61% chance. The price has risen 11 points since November 11, from 51% to 62%, after peaking at 93% on November 13. In the last 24 hours it lost 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.