Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Odds right now: Yes 3%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends” a 3% chance. The price has fallen 4 points since October 10, from 7% to 3%, after peaking at 11% on October 25.
$1.9M has been traded on this event, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $59K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 4, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
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Questions
What are the odds of Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
On Polymarket, Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? is trading at 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends” a 3% chance. The price has fallen 4 points since October 10, from 7% to 3%, after peaking at 11% on October 25.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 4, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.