Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 4%, March 31, 2027 49%, June 30, 2027 62%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 4%, “March 31, 2027” at 49% and “June 30, 2027” at 62%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 10 points since October 16, from 14% to 4%. March 31, 2027 has briefly spiked to 53% on November 10 but is back near 49%, about where it was on November 1. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 lost 5 points.
On Kalshi, the same question for December 31, 2026 trades at 5%, in line with Polymarket.
$109K has been traded on this event, $3.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $8.2K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 94% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 4%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 4%, March 31, 2027 49%, June 30, 2027 62%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 4%, “March 31, 2027” at 49% and “June 30, 2027” at 62%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 10 points since October 16, from 14% to 4%. March 31, 2027 has briefly spiked to 53% on November 10 but is back near 49%, about where it was on November 1. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 lost 5 points.
What are the Kalshi odds for Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?
On Kalshi, December 31, 2026 trades at 5%, against 4% on Polymarket.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.