Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Odds right now: Sam Bankman-Fried 2%, Elon Musk 10%, Martin Shkreli 3%.
Show 16 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Who will Trump pardon before 2027: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 28 separate markets for “Who will Trump pardon before 2027”: “Sam Bankman-Fried” at 2%, “Elon Musk” at 10%, “Martin Shkreli” at 3% and “Himself” at 4%. Sam Bankman-Fried has held close to 2% since October 10. Elon Musk has risen 8 points since October 10, from 2% to 10%, after peaking at 30% on October 26.
$625K has been traded on this event, $5.5K of it in the last 24 hours, and $337K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Himself”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 96% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Himself”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 12 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
On Polymarket, Sam Bankman-Fried is trading at 2%. Other outcomes: Sam Bankman-Fried 2%, Elon Musk 10%, Martin Shkreli 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 28 separate markets for “Who will Trump pardon before 2027”: “Sam Bankman-Fried” at 2%, “Elon Musk” at 10%, “Martin Shkreli” at 3% and “Himself” at 4%. Sam Bankman-Fried has held close to 2% since October 10. Elon Musk has risen 8 points since October 10, from 2% to 10%, after peaking at 30% on October 26.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.