Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Odds right now: Anthropic 96%, Perplexity 70%, Microsoft 32%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 4:26 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027”: “Anthropic” at 96%, “Perplexity” at 70%, “Microsoft” at 32% and “Amazon” at 11%. Anthropic has risen 73 points since October 13, from 23% to 96%. Perplexity has risen 52 points since October 13, from 18% to 70%.
$84K has been traded on this event, with little trading in the last 24 hours, and $20K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Perplexity”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 81% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Perplexity”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
On Polymarket, Anthropic is trading at 96%. Other outcomes: Anthropic 96%, Perplexity 70%, Microsoft 32%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027”: “Anthropic” at 96%, “Perplexity” at 70%, “Microsoft” at 32% and “Amazon” at 11%. Anthropic has risen 73 points since October 13, from 23% to 96%. Perplexity has risen 52 points since October 13, from 18% to 70%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.