Jensen Huang arrested by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 5%, November 30, 2026 3%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Jensen Huang arrested by: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 4:46 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Jensen Huang arrested by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 5% and “November 30, 2026” at 3%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 45 points since November 12, from 50% to 5%. November 30, 2026 has fallen 47 points since November 12, from 50% to 3%.
$11K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $130K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 95% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying arrest occurs when Huang is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Jensen Huang arrested by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 5%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 5%, November 30, 2026 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Jensen Huang arrested by...?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Jensen Huang arrested by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 5% and “November 30, 2026” at 3%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 45 points since November 12, from 50% to 5%. November 30, 2026 has fallen 47 points since November 12, from 50% to 3%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.