Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Odds right now: CATL 17%, CXMT 27%, Alibaba 13%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 7:59 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 10 separate markets for “Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027”: “CATL” at 17%, “CXMT” at 27%, “Alibaba” at 13% and “Baidu” at 12%. CATL has fallen 10 points since October 12, from 27% to 17%. CXMT has risen 11 points since October 12, from 16% to 27%, after peaking at 35% on October 14.
$754K has been traded on this event, $33K of it in the last 24 hours, and $132K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “CXMT”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “CXMT”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
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Questions
What are the odds of Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
On Polymarket, CATL is trading at 17%. Other outcomes: CATL 17%, CXMT 27%, Alibaba 13%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 10 separate markets for “Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027”: “CATL” at 17%, “CXMT” at 27%, “Alibaba” at 13% and “Baidu” at 12%. CATL has fallen 10 points since October 12, from 27% to 17%. CXMT has risen 11 points since October 12, from 16% to 27%, after peaking at 35% on October 14.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.