Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Odds right now: Xiaomi 13%, ByteDance 16%, DeepSeek 27%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:07 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027”: “Xiaomi” at 13%, “ByteDance” at 16%, “DeepSeek” at 27% and “Moonshot AI” at 22%. Xiaomi has fallen 8 points since October 10, from 21% to 13%. ByteDance has held close to 16% since October 10.
$209K has been traded on this event, $12K of it in the last 24 hours, and $90K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “ByteDance”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 62% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “ByteDance”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
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Questions
What are the odds of Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
On Polymarket, Xiaomi is trading at 13%. Other outcomes: Xiaomi 13%, ByteDance 16%, DeepSeek 27%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027”: “Xiaomi” at 13%, “ByteDance” at 16%, “DeepSeek” at 27% and “Moonshot AI” at 22%. Xiaomi has fallen 8 points since October 10, from 21% to 13%. ByteDance has held close to 16% since October 10.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.