Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Odds right now: Google 62%, Anthropic 31%, OpenAI 4%.
Show 3 more outcomes
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Anthropic”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 13 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 66Tech & AI · 13 days ago
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Google
$4.3K on No at 62¢ · pays $7.0K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only 3 markets ever traded
0xaf20…ce6anew that day · 3 mkts · −$9.3K P&L - 46Tech & AI · 26 h ago
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Google
$999 on No at 40¢ · pays $2.5K
- Only 3 markets ever traded
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x393f…419e159d old · 3 mkts · −$1 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
On Polymarket, Google is trading at 62%. Other outcomes: Google 62%, Anthropic 31%, OpenAI 4%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.