Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
Odds right now: No release by November 30 26%, November 24 13%, November 19 10%.
Show 8 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:46 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see No release by November 30 as the most likely outcome at 26%, ahead of November 24 (13%) and November 19 (10%). 20 outcomes are trading in all. No release by November 30 has fallen 18 points since October 28, from 51% to 33%. November 24 has fallen 36 points since October 28, from 50% to 14%. In the last 24 hours No release by November 30 lost 10 points.
$26K has been traded on this event, $10K of it in the last 24 hours, and $23K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “No release by November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “No release by November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More tech & ai markets
Questions
What are the odds of Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
On Polymarket, No release by November 30 is trading at 26%. Other outcomes: No release by November 30 26%, November 24 13%, November 19 10%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see No release by November 30 as the most likely outcome at 26%, ahead of November 24 (13%) and November 19 (10%). 20 outcomes are trading in all. No release by November 30 has fallen 18 points since October 28, from 51% to 33%. November 24 has fallen 36 points since October 28, from 50% to 14%. In the last 24 hours No release by November 30 lost 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.