Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?
Odds right now: Iran 19%, Lebanon 9%, Sudan 13%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 11:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket prices 16 separate markets for “Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027”: “Iran” at 19%, “Lebanon” at 9%, “Sudan” at 13% and “Iraq” at 14%. Iran has fallen 32 points since November 14, from 51% to 19%. Lebanon has fallen 41 points since November 14, from 50% to 9%.
$13K has been traded on this event, $13K of it in the last 24 hours, and $14K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Iran”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Iran”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?
On Polymarket, Iran is trading at 19%. Other outcomes: Iran 19%, Lebanon 9%, Sudan 13%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket prices 16 separate markets for “Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027”: “Iran” at 19%, “Lebanon” at 9%, “Sudan” at 13% and “Iraq” at 14%. Iran has fallen 32 points since November 14, from 51% to 19%. Lebanon has fallen 41 points since November 14, from 50% to 9%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.