Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 14%, June 30, 2027 39%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 1:44 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31”: “December 31, 2026” at 14% and “June 30, 2027” at 39%. December 31, 2026 has briefly spiked to 33% on October 23 but is back near 14%, about where it was on October 10. June 30, 2027 has fallen 12 points since October 23, from 51% to 39%, after peaking at 84% on October 29. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 4 points.
$152K has been traded on this event, $10K of it in the last 24 hours, and $56K sits in the order books. 1 large bet in the last 30 days stood out as unusual for size, odds or wallet history.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 0 of them have made $25K+.
None of the top holders has a big profit record yet.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 65Politics · 18 days ago
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?: December 31, 2026
$1.0K on Yes at 31¢ · pays $3.2K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x2006…a0fbnew that day · 1 mkt · −$660 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 14%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 14%, June 30, 2027 39%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31”: “December 31, 2026” at 14% and “June 30, 2027” at 39%. December 31, 2026 has briefly spiked to 33% on October 23 but is back near 14%, about where it was on October 10. June 30, 2027 has fallen 12 points since October 23, from 51% to 39%, after peaking at 84% on October 29. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.