US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?
Odds right now: December 31 5%, March 31 18%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:19 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...”: “December 31” at 5% and “March 31” at 18%. December 31 has fallen 45 points since October 15, from 50% to 5%. March 31 has fallen 33 points since October 15, from 51% to 18%. In the last 24 hours December 31 lost 6 points.
$57K has been traded on this event, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $35K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 12 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official. Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed. The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 5%. Other outcomes: December 31 5%, March 31 18%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...”: “December 31” at 5% and “March 31” at 18%. December 31 has fallen 45 points since October 15, from 50% to 5%. March 31 has fallen 33 points since October 15, from 51% to 18%. In the last 24 hours December 31 lost 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.