UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?
Odds right now: 0.2–0.3% 40%, 0.4–0.5% 20%, 0.6–0.7% 13%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ): the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 10:18 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 0.2–0.3% as the most likely outcome at 40%, ahead of 0.4–0.5% (20%) and 0.6–0.7% (13%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 0.2–0.3% has fallen 11 points since November 12, from 51% to 40%, after peaking at 53% on November 13. 0.4–0.5% has fallen 30 points since November 12, from 50% to 20%, after peaking at 56% on November 13. In the last 24 hours 0.2–0.3% gained 13 points.
$6.7K has been traded on this event, $5.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $4.2K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “0.2–0.3%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 56% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 12, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q4 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “0.2–0.3%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q4 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Questions
What are the odds of UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?
On Polymarket, 0.2–0.3% is trading at 40%. Other outcomes: 0.2–0.3% 40%, 0.4–0.5% 20%, 0.6–0.7% 13%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 0.2–0.3% as the most likely outcome at 40%, ahead of 0.4–0.5% (20%) and 0.6–0.7% (13%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 0.2–0.3% has fallen 11 points since November 12, from 51% to 40%, after peaking at 53% on November 13. 0.4–0.5% has fallen 30 points since November 12, from 50% to 20%, after peaking at 56% on November 13. In the last 24 hours 0.2–0.3% gained 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 12, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.