Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Odds right now: Yes 7%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:07 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide” a 7% chance. The price has fallen 25 points since October 10, from 32% to 7%. In the last 24 hours it lost 2 points.
$597K has been traded on this event, $9.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $6.5K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 83% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on August 1, 2027. How it resolves: Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
On Polymarket, Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? is trading at 7%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide” a 7% chance. The price has fallen 25 points since October 10, from 32% to 7%. In the last 24 hours it lost 2 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on August 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.