Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
Odds right now: Fireworks restriction initiative 67%, Marriage taxation initiative 26%, VAT federal decree 18%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 4:45 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass”: “Fireworks restriction initiative” at 67%, “Marriage taxation initiative” at 26%, “VAT federal decree” at 18% and “War Material amendment” at 41%. Fireworks restriction initiative has risen 6 points since October 16, from 62% to 68%, after peaking at 81% on November 8. Marriage taxation initiative has risen 12 points since October 16, from 14% to 26%, after peaking at 44% on October 25. In the last 24 hours Fireworks restriction initiative lost 8 points.
On Kalshi, the same question for Fireworks restriction initiative trades at 71%, 3 points higher than on Polymarket (67%); the two real-money markets average 69%.
$52K has been traded on this event, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $58K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Fireworks restriction initiative”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026. How it resolves: As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendmen. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Fireworks restriction initiative”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
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Questions
What are the odds of Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
On Polymarket, Fireworks restriction initiative is trading at 67%. Other outcomes: Fireworks restriction initiative 67%, Marriage taxation initiative 26%, VAT federal decree 18%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass”: “Fireworks restriction initiative” at 67%, “Marriage taxation initiative” at 26%, “VAT federal decree” at 18% and “War Material amendment” at 41%. Fireworks restriction initiative has risen 6 points since October 16, from 62% to 68%, after peaking at 81% on November 8. Marriage taxation initiative has risen 12 points since October 16, from 14% to 26%, after peaking at 44% on October 25. In the last 24 hours Fireworks restriction initiative lost 8 points.
What are the Kalshi odds for Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
On Kalshi, Fireworks restriction initiative trades at 71%, against 67% on Polymarket.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.