
Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
Odds right now: November 13 99%, November 14 >99%, November 17 82%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 11:59 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket prices 18 separate markets for “Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...”: “November 13” at 99%, “November 14” at >99%, “November 17” at 82% and “November 22” at 78%. November 13 has risen 48 points since November 2, from 51% to 99%. November 14 has risen 50 points since November 2, from 50% to >99%. In the last 24 hours November 13 gained 15 points.
$138K has been traded on this event, $8.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $11K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 17”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 87% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 17”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia or the armed forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, including forces formally under the Presidential Leadership Council, whether or not operating as part of the Saudi-led coalition. A strike will qualify if it is attributed to any of these parties, regardless of which of them conducted it. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or other proxy forces will not qualify. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and armed forces of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s internationally recognized government and its armed forces, the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
On Polymarket, November 13 is trading at 99%. Other outcomes: November 13 99%, November 14 >99%, November 17 82%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket prices 18 separate markets for “Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...”: “November 13” at 99%, “November 14” at >99%, “November 17” at 82% and “November 22” at 78%. November 13 has risen 48 points since November 2, from 51% to 99%. November 14 has risen 50 points since November 2, from 50% to >99%. In the last 24 hours November 13 gained 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.