Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Odds right now: David Lisnard 18%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 51%, Marine Le Pen 90%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 37 separate markets for “Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round”: “David Lisnard” at 18%, “Jean-Luc Mélenchon” at 51%, “Marine Le Pen” at 90% and “Jordan Bardella” at 8%. David Lisnard has risen 4 points since October 10, from 14% to 18%, after peaking at 22% on October 31. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has risen 20 points since October 10, from 31% to 51%.
$544K has been traded on this event, $4.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $428K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Christine Lagarde”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No. 1 large bet in the last 30 days stood out as unusual for size, odds or wallet history.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 19, 2027. How it resolves: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Christine Lagarde”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 65Politics · 25 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?: David Lisnard
$1.0K on Yes at 16¢ · pays $6.3K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xceec…8305new that day · 1 mkt · +$164 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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Questions
What are the odds of Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
On Polymarket, David Lisnard is trading at 18%. Other outcomes: David Lisnard 18%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 51%, Marine Le Pen 90%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 37 separate markets for “Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round”: “David Lisnard” at 18%, “Jean-Luc Mélenchon” at 51%, “Marine Le Pen” at 90% and “Jordan Bardella” at 8%. David Lisnard has risen 4 points since October 10, from 14% to 18%, after peaking at 22% on October 31. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has risen 20 points since October 10, from 31% to 51%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 19, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.