Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
Odds right now: 65%+ 73%, 60%+ 94%, 55%+ 98%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut”: “65%+” at 73%, “60%+” at 94%, “55%+” at 98% and “50%+” at >99%. 65%+ has risen 58 points since October 12, from 15% to 73%. 60%+ has risen 64 points since October 12, from 31% to 94%, after peaking at 98% on November 10. In the last 24 hours 65%+ gained 23 points.
$60K has been traded on this event, $5.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.2K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “60%+”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “60%+”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: agi.safe.ai/
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Questions
What are the odds of Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
On Polymarket, 65%+ is trading at 73%. Other outcomes: 65%+ 73%, 60%+ 94%, 55%+ 98%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut”: “65%+” at 73%, “60%+” at 94%, “55%+” at 98% and “50%+” at >99%. 65%+ has risen 58 points since October 12, from 15% to 73%. 60%+ has risen 64 points since October 12, from 31% to 94%, after peaking at 98% on November 10. In the last 24 hours 65%+ gained 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.