Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on...?
Odds right now: No release by November 30 66%, November 28 22%, November 17 20%.
Show 11 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 11:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see No release by November 30 as the most likely outcome at 66%, ahead of November 28 (22%) and November 17 (20%). 23 outcomes are trading in all. No release by November 30 has risen 17 points since October 28, from 50% to 66%, after peaking at 72% on October 29. November 28 has fallen 27 points since October 28, from 50% to 22%. In the last 24 hours No release by November 30 gained 25 points.
$16K has been traded on this event, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $16K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “No release by November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 61% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “No release by November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on...?
On Polymarket, No release by November 30 is trading at 66%. Other outcomes: No release by November 30 66%, November 28 22%, November 17 20%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see No release by November 30 as the most likely outcome at 66%, ahead of November 28 (22%) and November 17 (20%). 23 outcomes are trading in all. No release by November 30 has risen 17 points since October 28, from 50% to 66%, after peaking at 72% on October 29. November 28 has fallen 27 points since October 28, from 50% to 22%. In the last 24 hours No release by November 30 gained 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.