Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?
Odds right now: November 30 25%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 1:46 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by November 30” a 25% chance. The price has fallen 35 points since October 15, from 60% to 25%, after peaking at 66% on October 16. In the last 24 hours it lost 10 points.
$28K has been traded on this event, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, and $1.9K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 62% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if King Khalid International Airport (RUH) is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if King Khalid International Airport (RUH) is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” King Khalid International Airport refers to the international airport serving Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (IATA: RUH; ICAO: OERK), including its runways, taxiways, aprons, terminals, and other facilities within the airport grounds. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts King Khalid International Airport. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on King Khalid International Airport do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact King Khalid International Airport if it directly impacts any part of the airport grounds, including its runways, taxiways, aprons, terminals, or other airport facilities. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?
On Polymarket, November 30 is trading at 25%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by November 30” a 25% chance. The price has fallen 35 points since October 15, from 60% to 25%, after peaking at 66% on October 16. In the last 24 hours it lost 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.