How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
Odds right now: No vote 96%, <215 2%, 215-219 2%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 1:51 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see No vote as the most likely outcome at 96%, ahead of <215 (2%) and 215-219 (2%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. No vote has risen 47 points since November 6, from 50% to 96%. <215 has fallen 47 points since November 6, from 50% to 2%. In the last 24 hours No vote gained 81 points.
$37K has been traded on this event, $28K of it in the last 24 hours, and $151K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “No vote”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “No vote”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
On Polymarket, No vote is trading at 96%. Other outcomes: No vote 96%, <215 2%, 215-219 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see No vote as the most likely outcome at 96%, ahead of <215 (2%) and 215-219 (2%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. No vote has risen 47 points since November 6, from 50% to 96%. <215 has fallen 47 points since November 6, from 50% to 2%. In the last 24 hours No vote gained 81 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.