How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Odds right now: 2 (50 bps) 76%, 1 (25 bps) 25%, 3 (75 bps) <1%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “1 (25 bps)”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 22 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 50Economy · 30 days ago
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)
$690 on Yes at 23¢ · pays $3.0K
- Wallet is 4 days old
- Underdog at 23¢
0xbc14…ea954d old · 53 mkts · −$12K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
On Polymarket, 2 (50 bps) is trading at 76%. Other outcomes: 2 (50 bps) 76%, 1 (25 bps) 25%, 3 (75 bps) <1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.