How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
Odds right now: 12-15 80%, 16-19 11%, 20-23 5%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 7:49 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 12-15 as the most likely outcome at 80%, ahead of 16-19 (11%) and 20-23 (5%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 12-15 has risen 11 points since October 12, from 69% to 80%, after peaking at 86% on October 14. 16-19 has risen 7 points since October 12, from 4% to 11%, after peaking at 20% on November 3. In the last 24 hours 12-15 gained 9 points.
$236K has been traded on this event, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, and $37K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “16-19”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “16-19”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
On Polymarket, 12-15 is trading at 80%. Other outcomes: 12-15 80%, 16-19 11%, 20-23 5%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 12-15 as the most likely outcome at 80%, ahead of 16-19 (11%) and 20-23 (5%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 12-15 has risen 11 points since October 12, from 69% to 80%, after peaking at 86% on October 14. 16-19 has risen 7 points since October 12, from 4% to 11%, after peaking at 20% on November 3. In the last 24 hours 12-15 gained 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.