"Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office
Odds right now: 4m-5m 40%, 6m-7m 26%, 3m-4m 23%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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"Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see 4m-5m as the most likely outcome at 40%, ahead of 6m-7m (26%) and 3m-4m (23%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 4m-5m has fallen 10 points since November 10, from 51% to 40%. 6m-7m has fallen 24 points since November 10, from 50% to 26%. In the last 24 hours 4m-5m gained 6 points.
$6.1K has been traded on this event, $5.5K of it in the last 24 hours, and $7.9K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “3m-4m”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 75% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 15, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to how much "Ghost Soldier" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (November 13 - 15). This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “3m-4m”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Ghost Soldier" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (November 13 - 15). This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the "Weekend" figure for the movie's first weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page. If neither source has a final figure by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the figure The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the figure Box Office Mojo reports at that time. If neither source reports any figure by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve according to the figure for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
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Questions
What are the odds of "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office?
On Polymarket, 4m-5m is trading at 40%. Other outcomes: 4m-5m 40%, 6m-7m 26%, 3m-4m 23%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see 4m-5m as the most likely outcome at 40%, ahead of 6m-7m (26%) and 3m-4m (23%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 4m-5m has fallen 10 points since November 10, from 51% to 40%. 6m-7m has fallen 24 points since November 10, from 50% to 26%. In the last 24 hours 4m-5m gained 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 15, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.