What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 17)
Odds right now: Reserved option 1 50%, Reserved option 2 50%, Reserved option 3 50%.
Show 11 more outcomes
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 17): the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see Reserved option 1 as the most likely outcome at 50%, ahead of Reserved option 2 (50%) and Reserved option 3 (50%). 23 outcomes are trading in all.
On Kalshi, the same question for Heartland trades at 41%, in line with Polymarket. The cross-market table above compares all 3 matched outcomes.
$11K has been traded on this event, $9.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $7.8K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “A Dog's Perfect Christmas”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 95% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 18, 2026. How it resolves: Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “A Dog's Perfect Christmas”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Resolution source: www.netflix.com/tudum/top10
Full rules from Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
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Questions
What are the odds of What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 17)?
On Polymarket, Reserved option 1 is trading at 50%. Other outcomes: Reserved option 1 50%, Reserved option 2 50%, Reserved option 3 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 17)?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see Reserved option 1 as the most likely outcome at 50%, ahead of Reserved option 2 (50%) and Reserved option 3 (50%). 23 outcomes are trading in all.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 18, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.