GTA VI released by...?
Odds right now: November 30 98%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
GTA VI released by: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 9:42 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “GTA VI released by November 30” a 98% chance. The price has risen 3 points since October 10, from 95% to 98%.
$313K has been traded on this event, $15K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.9K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of GTA VI released by...?
On Polymarket, November 30 is trading at 98%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with GTA VI released by...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “GTA VI released by November 30” a 98% chance. The price has risen 3 points since October 10, from 95% to 98%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.