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Next James Bond actor?

Odds right now: Callum Turner 35%, Josh O'Connor 28%, Jack Lowden 16%.

CultureEnds in 55 days$2.1M traded$70K in 24h$326K liquidityWatch the rulesUnusual bets
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
Callum Turner
35%—▼ 9.4
Josh O'Connor
28%—▲ 21.5
Jack Lowden
16%—▼ 8.1
No Bond chosen
15%—▼ 2.9
James Norton
1%—▼ 1.8
Tom Francis
1%—▼ 1.2
Jack Barton
1%—▼ 2.5
Theo James
<1%——
Robert Pattinson
<1%——
Jacob Elordi
<1%——
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
<1%——
Harris Dickinson
<1%——
Show 14 more outcomes
Richard Madden
<1%——
Jack O'Connell
<1%——
Joe Alwyn
<1%——
Paul Mescal
<1%——
Tom Hardy
<1%——
Pierce Brosnan
<1%——
Tom Holland
<1%——
Henry Cavill
<1%——
Robert James-Collier
<1%——
Timothee Chalamet
<1%——
Michael B Jordan
<1%——
Nicholas Galitzine
<1%——
Jonathan Bailey
<1%——
Tom Blyth
<1%——
Last 30 days0%40%81%Oct 7Nov 6
Callum Turner 35%Josh O'Connor 28%Jack Lowden 16%No Bond chosen 15%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

Deep researchPremium

A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “Josh O'Connor”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 14 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($4.9K held)
Yes 91%9% No
All top holders ($43K held)
Yes 25%75% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0xa5ef…2966 No$31K—
0x6cff…45ac Yes$1.8K$7.0K
0xb1ca…1705 Yes$1.7K$274K
0x9d84…1344 Yes$1.2K$3.5M
0x274e…648c Yes$629$14K
0x8c44…fcd4 Yes$524$26K
0x2e73…c4c2 Yes$463$7.5K
0x934f…79f5 Yes$458$78
0xefac…c9a1 Yes$421−$52K
0xb638…6826 Yes$401−$161
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

  • 63Culture · 28 days ago

    Next James Bond actor?: No Bond chosen

    $1.2K on Yes at 22¢ · pays $5.4K

    • Wallet is 12 days old
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    • Underdog at 22¢
    0x23cd…377a12d old · 2 mkts · −$18K P&L
  • 50Culture · 5 days ago

    Next James Bond actor?: Jack Lowden

    $976 on Yes at 39¢ · pays $2.5K

    • Wallet opened the same day
    • Its first market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    0x9139…69d9new that day · 1 mkt · −$350 P&L
Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ask Cleus about this market

Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.

Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.

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Questions

What are the odds of Next James Bond actor?

On Polymarket, Callum Turner is trading at 35%. Other outcomes: Callum Turner 35%, Josh O'Connor 28%, Jack Lowden 16%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.