Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Odds right now: Toy Story 5 79%, Movie B 50%, Movie C 50%.
Show 9 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see Toy Story 5 as the most likely outcome at 79%, ahead of Movie B (50%) and Movie C (50%). 21 outcomes are trading in all. Toy Story 5 has fallen 14 points since October 11, from 93% to 79%, after peaking at 96% on October 15. In the last 24 hours Toy Story 5 lost 14 points.
$89K has been traded on this event, $10K of it in the last 24 hours, and $52K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 74% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
On Polymarket, Toy Story 5 is trading at 79%. Other outcomes: Toy Story 5 79%, Movie B 50%, Movie C 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see Toy Story 5 as the most likely outcome at 79%, ahead of Movie B (50%) and Movie C (50%). 21 outcomes are trading in all. Toy Story 5 has fallen 14 points since October 11, from 93% to 79%, after peaking at 96% on October 15. In the last 24 hours Toy Story 5 lost 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.