China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Odds right now: Yes 89%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
China ballistic missile launch by December 31: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 11:57 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “China ballistic missile launch by December 31” a 89% chance. The price has risen 72 points since October 14, from 18% to 89%. In the last 24 hours it gained 82 points.
$50K has been traded on this event, $33K of it in the last 24 hours, and $7.2K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “China ballistic missile launch by December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 91% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “China ballistic missile launch by December 31?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
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Questions
What are the odds of China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
On Polymarket, China ballistic missile launch by December 31? is trading at 89%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “China ballistic missile launch by December 31” a 89% chance. The price has risen 72 points since October 14, from 18% to 89%. In the last 24 hours it gained 82 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.