- Cleus
- Predictions
- Arbitrage scanner
Polymarket arbitrage scanner — and Kalshi price gaps.
Outcome sets that cost less than $1 to cover, after fees, and the same markets priced differently on Kalshi. Polymarket’s books mostly add up — this shows the moments they don’t.
Outcome sets by cost to cover
Same market, different price
Every multi-outcome event, live
Mutually exclusive events where buying YES on every outcome costs less than the $1 one of them pays (or selling every one brings in more), after taker fees. Prices move fast — check the live book before acting.
The rest of Cleus Predictions
- Polymarket analyticsEvery live market with AI odds, filters and alerts.
- Insider trackerUnusual bets from new wallets, scored with the evidence.
- Whale trackerEvery big trade, live, with the wallet behind it.
- LeaderboardTop traders by profit, ROI and win rate, by topic.
- Market newsHeadlines next to the odds they move.
Questions
How does Polymarket arbitrage work?
In a mutually exclusive event, exactly one outcome pays $1. If the best asks for YES on every outcome add up to less than $1, buying all of them locks in the difference. If the best bids add up to more than $1, selling them all does. The scanner checks this across the busiest multi-outcome events, after Polymarket’s taker fees.
How often are there real opportunities?
Rarely, and they close fast — Polymarket’s books mostly add up. The scanner shows any live gap first and the closest near-misses below, so you can watch where one might open.
What about Polymarket vs Kalshi?
Cleus matches Polymarket events to the same proposition on Kalshi and shows both prices side by side. Gaps of a few points appear in the terminal’s Price gaps view. Remember the venues have different fees, rules wording and settlement — read both before treating it as arbitrage.
What is options fair value?
For crypto price markets (“Bitcoin above $X on date”), Cleus prices the same outcome from Deribit options’ implied volatility — no AI involved. Where Polymarket is far from it, the gap is objective. Options usually price in a little more movement than happens, so they lean high on long shots.
Is it free?
Yes, the scanner and price gaps are free.
Public Polymarket data, refreshed every few minutes. Analysis by Cleus. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.