Polymarket insider tracker — unusual bets, with the evidence.

Big Polymarket bets that fit the pattern seen in documented cases of well-informed trading: a brand-new wallet, few or no previous markets, most of the wallet’s money in one bet, and long odds. Each bet gets a 0–100 score with the reasons, the wallet’s history, where its money came from, and when the news first covered the story.

No. A flag is evidence, not an accusation. A bet can look informed and be a lucky guess or a hedge. Under the CFTC’s 2026 guidance, insider trading means misusing confidential information in breach of a duty, which no public data can show. Wallets are shown as addresses and never tied to people.

Wallet age (opened the same day scores highest), how many markets it has traded, how much of its money is in this one bet, the odds (long shots only count for wallets under a week old), size, and topic. Sports and crypto-price bets are scored down because a new wallet backing an underdog there is usually just a gambler. Lists start at 75.

Every strong flag is logged when it’s spotted and checked when its market settles: won or lost, and how many hours before the result it was placed. The record is public on cleus.ai/predictions, losses included.

The scan runs every two minutes. The public page shows bets 30 minutes after they happen; Cleus Premium sees them live and can get push or email alerts.

Yes. The tracker, scores and evidence are free. Premium adds live (undelayed) bets, alerts, saved bets, wallet follows and CSV history.