Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
Odds right now: December 31 1%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Andrew Tate released from custody by: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 5:44 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026” a 1% chance. The price has fallen 7 points since October 16, from 9% to 1%, after peaking at 16% on October 22. In the last 24 hours it lost 3 points.
$336K has been traded on this event, $13K of it in the last 24 hours, and $8.3K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. Extradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026” a 1% chance. The price has fallen 7 points since October 16, from 9% to 1%, after peaking at 16% on October 22. In the last 24 hours it lost 3 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.