Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...?
Odds right now: November 30, 2026 3%, December 31, 2026 13%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Aleksandar Vučić arrested by: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:19 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...”: “November 30, 2026” at 3% and “December 31, 2026” at 13%. November 30, 2026 has fallen 47 points since November 7, from 51% to 3%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 38 points since November 7, from 51% to 13%. In the last 24 hours November 30, 2026 lost 6 points.
$9.2K has been traded on this event, $4.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $25K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleksandar Vučić is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleksandar Vučić is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...?
On Polymarket, November 30, 2026 is trading at 3%. Other outcomes: November 30, 2026 3%, December 31, 2026 13%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...”: “November 30, 2026” at 3% and “December 31, 2026” at 13%. November 30, 2026 has fallen 47 points since November 7, from 51% to 3%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 38 points since November 7, from 51% to 13%. In the last 24 hours November 30, 2026 lost 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.