2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Odds right now: François Hollande 26%, Sarah Knafo 16%, Marine Le Pen 92%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 1:12 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 49 separate markets for “2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot”: “François Hollande” at 26%, “Sarah Knafo” at 16%, “Marine Le Pen” at 92% and “David Lisnard” at 82%. François Hollande has fallen 14 points since October 10, from 40% to 26%. Sarah Knafo has briefly spiked to 30% on October 12 but is back near 16%, about where it was on October 10.
$691K has been traded on this event, $17K of it in the last 24 hours, and $501K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Teddy Riner”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 77% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 18, 2027. How it resolves: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Teddy Riner”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
On Polymarket, François Hollande is trading at 26%. Other outcomes: François Hollande 26%, Sarah Knafo 16%, Marine Le Pen 92%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 49 separate markets for “2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot”: “François Hollande” at 26%, “Sarah Knafo” at 16%, “Marine Le Pen” at 92% and “David Lisnard” at 82%. François Hollande has fallen 14 points since October 10, from 40% to 26%. Sarah Knafo has briefly spiked to 30% on October 12 but is back near 16%, about where it was on October 10.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 18, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.