Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 6%, December 31, 2027 27%, June 30, 2027 14%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 5:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 6%, “December 31, 2027” at 27% and “June 30, 2027” at 14%. December 31, 2026 has risen 4 points since October 16, from 2% to 6%, after peaking at 15% on October 28. December 31, 2027 has fallen 39 points since October 16, from 66% to 27%. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 2 points.
$1.2M has been traded on this event, $35K of it in the last 24 hours, and $35K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 6%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 6%, December 31, 2027 27%, June 30, 2027 14%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 6%, “December 31, 2027” at 27% and “June 30, 2027” at 14%. December 31, 2026 has risen 4 points since October 16, from 2% to 6%, after peaking at 15% on October 28. December 31, 2027 has fallen 39 points since October 16, from 66% to 27%. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 2 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.