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FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Odds right now: December 31, 2027 66%, June 30, 2027 17%, September 30, 2027 36%.

Tech & AIEnds in 14 mo$255K traded$7.8K in 24h$23K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
December 31, 2027
66%—▼ 1.5
June 30, 2027
17%——
September 30, 2027
36%—▲ 5.5
Last 30 days0%41%81%Oct 7Nov 6
December 31, 2027 66%June 30, 2027 17%September 30, 2027 36%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “December 31, 2027”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 16 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($17K held)
Yes 70%30% No
All top holders ($20K held)
Yes 67%33% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x1e1f…c855 Yes$9.9K$314K
0x5188…c804 No$2.5K$662K
0x8314…0b88 Yes$2.0K$33K
0x49f2…d7b4 No$1.7K$77K
0xb1ca…1705 No$306$274K
0xbad2…5296 No$300$154K
0x4e84…ef69 No$267$4.5K
0x9e24…7e71 Yes$226$764
0x1491…fd70 No$204$21K
0x1583…bdde Yes$198−$49K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. Differences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions

What are the odds of FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

On Polymarket, December 31, 2027 is trading at 66%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2027 66%, June 30, 2027 17%, September 30, 2027 36%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.