FAA outage attributed to AI?
Odds right now: Yes 7%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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FAA outage attributed to AI: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 2:39 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “FAA outage attributed to AI” a 7% chance. The price has fallen 46 points since November 13, from 51% to 5%.
On Kalshi, the same question trades at 7%, in line with Polymarket.
$6.5K has been traded on this event, $8.7K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.2K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “FAA outage attributed to AI”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 92% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to artificial intelligence between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “FAA outage attributed to AI?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to artificial intelligence between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. An attribution to artificial intelligence refers to the outage being caused by an artificial intelligence system, model, or agent, including through its malfunction, error, or autonomous action. This includes AI software used by the FAA or its contractors, as well as an AI model or agent acting outside the control of its developers or operators. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was caused by artificial intelligence. Attributions that do not state that an AI system, model, or agent itself caused the outage, such as a cyberattack carried out by people using AI tools or a statement that AI was only a contributing factor, will not qualify. Statements describing artificial intelligence as the suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out cause of the outage will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by private companies will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of any investigation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of FAA outage attributed to AI?
On Polymarket, FAA outage attributed to AI? is trading at 7%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with FAA outage attributed to AI?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “FAA outage attributed to AI” a 7% chance. The price has fallen 46 points since November 13, from 51% to 5%.
What are the Kalshi odds for FAA outage attributed to AI?
On Kalshi, the same question trades at 7%, against 7% on Polymarket.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.