FAA outage attributed to Iran?
Odds right now: Yes 3%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
FAA outage attributed to Iran: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “FAA outage attributed to Iran” a 3% chance.
$6.0K has been traded on this event, $10K of it in the last 24 hours, and $23K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “FAA outage attributed to Iran”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 91% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “FAA outage attributed to Iran?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state, including its armed forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused on behalf of the aforementioned Iranian state services will also qualify. Attributions to Iranian proxy or partner groups, such as Hezbollah, will not qualify, unless the statement also states that the Iranian state, as defined above, carried out, ordered, or directed the outage. Statements describing Iranian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Iranian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of FAA outage attributed to Iran?
On Polymarket, FAA outage attributed to Iran? is trading at 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with FAA outage attributed to Iran?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “FAA outage attributed to Iran” a 3% chance.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.