Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Odds right now: Yes 75%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 2:44 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026” a 75% chance. The price has risen 55 points since October 15, from 21% to 75%. In the last 24 hours it gained 55 points.
$79K has been traded on this event, $3.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.5K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 62% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” “Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model. A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price. Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs. The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
On Polymarket, Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? is trading at 75%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026” a 75% chance. The price has risen 55 points since October 15, from 21% to 75%. In the last 24 hours it gained 55 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.