Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
Odds right now: December 31 3%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Tesla release Optimus by: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 8:49 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026” a 3% chance. The price has fallen 4 points since October 12, from 7% to 3%, after peaking at 14% on October 30.
$163K has been traded on this event, $5.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $16K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026” a 3% chance. The price has fallen 4 points since October 12, from 7% to 3%, after peaking at 14% on October 30.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.