Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026?
Odds right now: <5 62%, 5-7 30%, 8-10 4%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 4:48 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders see <5 as the most likely outcome at 62%, ahead of 5-7 (30%) and 8-10 (4%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. <5 has risen 13 points since November 2, from 50% to 62%, after peaking at 82% on November 12. 5-7 has fallen 21 points since November 2, from 51% to 30%. In the last 24 hours <5 lost 10 points.
$21K has been traded on this event, $9.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $11K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “5-7”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 67% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the number of days in November 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “5-7”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of days in November 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026?
On Polymarket, <5 is trading at 62%. Other outcomes: <5 62%, 5-7 30%, 8-10 4%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders see <5 as the most likely outcome at 62%, ahead of 5-7 (30%) and 8-10 (4%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. <5 has risen 13 points since November 2, from 50% to 62%, after peaking at 82% on November 12. 5-7 has fallen 21 points since November 2, from 51% to 30%. In the last 24 hours <5 lost 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.