Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Odds right now: Sam Altman - OpenAI 4%, Brian Armstrong - Coinbase 5%, Dan Clancy - Twitch 3%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which CEOs will be out before 2027: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:48 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “Which CEOs will be out before 2027”: “Sam Altman - OpenAI” at 4%, “Brian Armstrong - Coinbase” at 5%, “Dan Clancy - Twitch” at 3% and “Sundar Pichai - Google” at 4%. Sam Altman - OpenAI has held close to 4% since October 14. Brian Armstrong - Coinbase has fallen 3 points since October 14, from 8% to 5%.
$728K has been traded on this event, $4.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $11K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Sam Altman - OpenAI”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Sam Altman - OpenAI”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 2 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
On Polymarket, Sam Altman - OpenAI is trading at 4%. Other outcomes: Sam Altman - OpenAI 4%, Brian Armstrong - Coinbase 5%, Dan Clancy - Twitch 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “Which CEOs will be out before 2027”: “Sam Altman - OpenAI” at 4%, “Brian Armstrong - Coinbase” at 5%, “Dan Clancy - Twitch” at 3% and “Sundar Pichai - Google” at 4%. Sam Altman - OpenAI has held close to 4% since October 14. Brian Armstrong - Coinbase has fallen 3 points since October 14, from 8% to 5%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.