What will the next Gemini model family be named?
Odds right now: Gemini Hydrogen 88%, Other 50%, Placeholder 1 50%.
Show 18 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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What will the next Gemini model family be named: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 8:02 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see Gemini Hydrogen as the most likely outcome at 88%, ahead of Other (50%) and Placeholder 1 (50%). 34 outcomes are trading in all. Gemini Hydrogen has risen 38 points since November 11, from 51% to 88%.
$6.2K has been traded on this event, $7.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $13K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Gemini Hydrogen”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 78% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the model family name of the next model Google releases in a new model family, released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying release is Google's first publicly released model of a new model family in its core, general-purpose Gemini model lineup, meaning the tiers alongside Gemini Pro, Flash, Flash-Lite, Argon, and Carbon. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Gemini Hydrogen”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the model family name of the next model Google releases in a new model family, released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying release is Google's first publicly released model of a new model family in its core, general-purpose Gemini model lineup, meaning the tiers alongside Gemini Pro, Flash, Flash-Lite, Argon, and Carbon. New versions, updates, modes, variants, or re-releases of models in existing families will not qualify, nor will specialized models such as Gemini Robotics, Gemini Embedding, Gemini Diffusion, Gemini Live, or text-to-speech, image, audio, or video models. Each listed option's family name is its name excluding "Gemini". This market will resolve to the listed option whose family name, together with "Gemini", appears in the qualifying model's official name, regardless of word order, capitalization, spacing, punctuation, or hyphenation, and regardless of accompanying modifiers such as version numbers, dates, or mode, size, or variant designations. A family name appearing only as part of a longer word will not count. If the official name contains the family names of multiple listed options, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to "Other" if no qualifying release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the qualifying model's official name does not include "Gemini", contains no word other than "Gemini" and such modifiers, or contains no listed option's family name. The official name is the name under which the model is presented in Google's primary launch announcement or, absent one, its model card. API identifiers, URL slugs, interface labels, and codenames will not be considered. Any subsequent renaming, cancellation, or reclassification will not affect resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. This market will resolve according to the first qualifying release. If multiple models are released on the same calendar date (ET), all will be considered; if only one qualifies, this market will resolve according to it. If multiple qualify, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of What will the next Gemini model family be named?
On Polymarket, Gemini Hydrogen is trading at 88%. Other outcomes: Gemini Hydrogen 88%, Other 50%, Placeholder 1 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What will the next Gemini model family be named?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see Gemini Hydrogen as the most likely outcome at 88%, ahead of Other (50%) and Placeholder 1 (50%). 34 outcomes are trading in all. Gemini Hydrogen has risen 38 points since November 11, from 51% to 88%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.