What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
Odds right now: $403K - $407K 39%, $407K - $411K 34%, <$403K 27%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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What will the median home value in the US be on December 31: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see $403K - $407K as the most likely outcome at 39%, ahead of $407K - $411K (34%) and <$403K (27%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. $403K - $407K has risen 16 points since October 10, from 23% to 39%, after peaking at 60% on November 1. $407K - $411K has risen 16 points since October 10, from 18% to 34%, after peaking at 61% on October 15.
$63K has been traded on this event, $4.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $24K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$407K - $411K”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 51% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 11, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$407K - $411K”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 13 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57)
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Questions
What are the odds of What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
On Polymarket, $403K - $407K is trading at 39%. Other outcomes: $403K - $407K 39%, $407K - $411K 34%, <$403K 27%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see $403K - $407K as the most likely outcome at 39%, ahead of $407K - $411K (34%) and <$403K (27%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. $403K - $407K has risen 16 points since October 10, from 23% to 39%, after peaking at 60% on November 1. $407K - $411K has risen 16 points since October 10, from 18% to 34%, after peaking at 61% on October 15.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 11, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.