What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?
Odds right now: $445K - $458K 46%, <$445K 26%, $458K - $471K 15%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see $445K - $458K as the most likely outcome at 46%, ahead of <$445K (26%) and $458K - $471K (15%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. $445K - $458K has risen 10 points since October 10, from 37% to 47%, after peaking at 66% on November 4. <$445K has risen 24 points since October 10, from 3% to 26%, after peaking at 58% on November 1. In the last 24 hours $445K - $458K gained 14 points.
$59K has been traded on this event, $3.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $14K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$445K - $458K”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 58% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 11, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$445K - $458K”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/58)
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More economy markets
Questions
What are the odds of What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?
On Polymarket, $445K - $458K is trading at 46%. Other outcomes: $445K - $458K 46%, <$445K 26%, $458K - $471K 15%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see $445K - $458K as the most likely outcome at 46%, ahead of <$445K (26%) and $458K - $471K (15%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. $445K - $458K has risen 10 points since October 10, from 37% to 47%, after peaking at 66% on November 4. <$445K has risen 24 points since October 10, from 3% to 26%, after peaking at 58% on November 1. In the last 24 hours $445K - $458K gained 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 11, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.